Everyone knows that Massachusetts is an overwhelmingly Democrat state. In the past four Presidential elections the Democrat candidate has won with over 60% of the popular vote, topped by then Senator Obama’s 62% in 2008.
But not this year.
Mitt Romney will take Massachusetts! Here are 10 reasons why this will happen:
- Massachusetts’ voters are already turning away from President Obama. Compared with his 62% majority in 2008, the June 2 Boston Globe/UNH/Cornell poll only gave the President a 46%-34% margin, with 20% undecided! While Massachusetts is still being counted on as a true blue” state for Obama, the fact that his popularity has declined by 16 points (25%) and is under 50% are red flags. And, if 20% of the voters are still undecided about the President, they are clearly in play for Mr. Romney. Cue the music, the thrill is gone.
- A big reason for this is that many Independent voters who supported candidate Obama in the last election did so for three reasons: a) the historic nature of his candidacy; b) severe dislike of President Bush, Republicans, John McCain and Sarah Palin; c) and blind faith that “hope and change” actually represented something positive. They have now seen that hope has left the building and that change is what is needed to get the Country back on the right track.
- In fact, many of them have already voted … for Scott Brown in 2010. Independent voters not only helped defeat Martha Coakley, their votes rejected President Obama only two years after his inauguration, despite his full throated endorsement on the Sunday before the election. How does this happen in a State that has three times as many Democrats as Republicans, unless the voters are sending a very clear message?
- Speaking of Senator Brown, Elizabeth Warren’s trouble with the truth is going to bring many Independents back to the polls to reinforce and revalidate his 2010 victory. Her shadowy past is an embarrassment, and her negative coattails will propel Brown to victory while adding votes for Mitt Romney.
- As Ronald Reagan used to say, “Facts are stubborn things.” While Obama will attempt to portray Romney as some kind of Republican ogre, his own abysmal record on the economy is what is really ugly. Despite the stimulus, and the bailouts, and the crony capitalism, and the breath taking spending, the employment picture has not improved and the National debt has grossly worsened. Obama’s claims of a slow and gradual economic improvement and his creation of over 4 million jobs will be quickly debunked by something the people who live in the real economy already know - the labor force has shrunk since 2009, and between 350,000-400,000 new Unemployment claims are being made every week!
- Do you remember the Watergate Hearings and the often-repeated question, “What did the President know, and when did he know it?” We will be repeatedly hearing this question in the coming weeks while Congress inexorably attempts to determine what Mr. Obama is hiding from the public by claiming Executive Privilege on relevant information concerning “Fast and Furious.” If the past is a guide, there will be additional and damaging revelations. The ghost of Richard Nixon will reappear. The net effect will be the accelerating erosion of Obama’s image from “cool” to replaceable.
- Unlike recent Republican Presidential candidates, Romney has a base in Massachusetts. He has proved that he can get 50% of the vote in defeating a Democrat opponent. Deval Patrick did not get 50% of the vote in the 2010 gubernatorial race. Obama’s current number is even lower in the Globe poll. Therefore, considering the falling image of the President, Romney is well positioned to pull the upset.
- In addition to Independent voters, moderate thinking Democrats have concluded that Obama is neither a Kennedy Democrat, nor a pragmatic Clintonian. He has proven himself to be a hyper-partisan, politically opportunistic, Executive Order kind of President who is more concerned about his own image and re-election than he is about the Democrat Party. For these “about-to-be” Romney Democrats, the defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2008 is an ongoing regret, and for the good of the Country, Romney is their more reasonable choice.
- This attitude will be fortified by Romney’s capacity to work with Democrats during his term as Governor. This will increasingly be seen as a plus, especially by Independents, who are looking for a less partisan, more compromising leader. And, his turn-around skill experience (2002 Olympics and Bain Capital) will be seen as reasons to vote for Romney to get America headed back in the right direction.
10. Ann Romney (probably should be higher on the list).
Many people will be surprised to know that Ronald Reagan actually won in Massachusetts two times over very liberal Democrats – and very handily. So, when history repeats itself, and Romney takes Massachusetts this year, it should not be that surprising.
I can’t wait to watch the implosions of the “decision desks” at NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN and MSNBC when they announce the news.
But you read it here first.